OVERWATCH.EARTH
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Where the northern and southern lights are likely right now

Live on the globe now: 2,600 tracked

This layer shows the auroral oval as a glowing band wrapped around each pole, plotted directly on the live globe. The data comes from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and its OVATION Prime model, pulled from the ovation_aurora_latest.json feed. OVATION estimates the probability that you'd see aurora overhead, cell by cell, across a global grid. We keep the cells above about 8% probability, so what you see is the part of the oval where the lights are actually likely, not the faint statistical fringe. Each point carries its own probability percentage and which hemisphere it belongs to, so the northern lights and the southern lights both appear at once. The feed refreshes roughly every five minutes, which is how often OVATION publishes, so this is a near-term nowcast rather than a multi-day outlook: it tells you where aurora is likely in the next half hour, not next week. During a geomagnetic storm the oval pushes toward lower latitudes, and you'll watch the band thicken and drop south (or north, below the equator) here. Click any cell to inspect its exact probability and timestamp. Aurora is one of around 29 live layers you can solo, spin, and zoom on overwatch.earth.

Data source: NOAA SWPC

Where does this aurora forecast come from?

From NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), specifically the OVATION Prime auroral model. We read SWPC's public ovation_aurora_latest.json feed and plot its probability grid on the globe.

How current is it, and how far ahead does it predict?

OVATION publishes a fresh grid about every five minutes and we poll it on that cadence. It's a short-range nowcast of where aurora is likely in roughly the next 30 minutes, not a multi-day forecast.

What does the brightness or each point mean?

Every cell carries a probability (0-100%) that aurora is visible overhead there. We show cells above about 8%, so the band traces the part of the oval where the lights are genuinely likely. Click a cell to read its exact percentage.

Does it cover the southern lights too?

Yes. The OVATION grid is global, so both ovals appear at once: the aurora borealis around the north pole and the aurora australis around the south, each tagged by hemisphere.